A Contested Election
The majority of people living in the United States reside on unceded indigenous territory, within the ongoing conflict of settler colonialism. Therefore I must frame this newsletter with an understanding that in the context of colonialism, all settler elections exist as a strutural conflict and should be challenged. We should avoid framing a contested election as an ethical violation against democracy, when in fact settler elections are an act of ongoing imperial violence and stolen authority already. In other words, the problem of the 2020 election is that a fascistic white nationalist may wield enormous power to remain at the head of an empire and that will have cascading harmful consequences, not that the “normal order” of the American electoral process is itself a model of justice and democracy.
So, with that framing—the intention of this newsletter is to see ourselves as actors within this conflict (as impacted parties or central actors) and to better understand our options for engagement. To begin, here are some collective reflections to bring to the people you’ll be with during this time:
If we consider ourselves actors toward liberation or anti-oppression, what does that mean for us during this election period?
What are we fighting for?
With whom do we stand (locally and nationally)?
What are our co-liberators and vulnerable communities saying they need or want from us in terms of acts of solidarity?
What principles will we use to determine which actions we engage in and which we do not?
What are our unique skills and resources that we can bring to this period of conflict?
What are our vulnerabilities and capacities, that impact how we can engage in this conflict?
[Image description: a dark purple rectangle with the words Central Actors in pink lettering, between the two words is an illustration of a person in a dress, holding up a sign over their head with one hand and the other hand held in a fist]
It would be easy to see a contested election as a conflict between Trump supporters and Biden supporters, or between Fascists and People Who Uphold Democracy, instead its actors are influenced by far more complex dynamics and interests. Here are just a few examples:
Controlling Power
Government officials control law and its enforcement and the officials in your location will be differently motivated in wielding those tools to preserve or disrupt the “integrity” of the electoral process through legal challenges in courts and legislatures. These acts are likely informed by loyalty to their political party as well as goals and alliances indirectly linked to the election results (“how will my donors view this action?” & “what economic interests are served?”). Many battles related to suppressing or protecting voting norms have already been won or lost in the last few months or years and can be used to better understand how your officials will respond on and around the election. Consider what forms of public pressure (phone zaps, sit-ins, marches, letter campaigns) have been effective in the past, to inform interacting with officials in comings weeks and months.
Law enforcement & military will be mobilized to respond to public actions, such as protests or planned attacks on government. They may also be mobilized to protect or unseat Trump, should he refuse to concede a loss. Most vulnerable to law enforcement and militarized violence are those who are already targeted: Black and Indigenous communities, undocumented people, and those who are otherwise criminalized—as law enforcement are tasked with “protecting” the election, they will simultaneously deter participation through their presence. Consider who is most criminalized in your communities and how you can counter-mobilize to prevent arrests, detention, and deterrence.
Corporations will be motivated primarily by protecting their wealth, whether in projected profits impacted by election results or their physical property. Those who have financial interests in defense and security may benefit from instability, while others will seek restoration of “business as usual” in order to improve value of stocks or protect physical locations. Boycotts and strikes will be powerful tools in impacting corporations (and the government officials they are invested in).
Media will be influential in conveying information to the public regarding the election and mobilizations around it—what people know and understand about a conflict deeply informs their decisions to act. We can expect that institutions like Fox News may disrupt the electoral process by announcing unconfirmed victories (“red mirage”) early in order to deter further voting and engagement or shore up support for Trump. We can also expect that sites like FiveThirtyEight will similarly swey electoral participation, as they did with their predictions in 2016 and during the 2020 primaries. Misinformation on social media has already had a broad and salient impact on participation, and will continue to spark far right engagement in mobilizations. Popular education (zines, blogs, social posts, flyers, newsletters, op-eds) about voting, the election, how results are determined, and what a contested election could look like will be essential in combatting this misinformation and should begin now.
Social Power
White supremacists & the far right are not monolithic—groups like Oath Keepers, Proud Boys, Patriot Front, local militias, and QAnon supporters will mobilize differently; some are invested in Trump as a leader and disrupting the election in order to maintain his presidency, while others will be invested in destabilizing governance writ-large in order to replace or shift power structures. Some will care little about the election or governance itself, but will use its disruptive nature to target Black and brown communities and symbols of “social progress.” We can expect mobilization in the streets, violent targeting of protests and escalations, and destruction of symbols of governance and civil rights. Knowing which white supremacist groups are active in your area and their typical tactics, will help plan for community safety and defense.
Antifa & the left are similarly diverse—we can expect that the left will mobilize in two intentional ways: first, to protect communities through mutual aid and defense against both white supremacists and law enforcement, and second in protest of oppression more generally including neoliberal and authoritarian governance. While some on the left will work to protect the polls and the electoral process, others will emphasize liberation from racial capitalism and its undemocratic processes. We can expect non-violent direct action, clashes with white supremacists and law enforcement, and destruction of property. Leftists across the country are forming or joining action councils such as the one established in Ferguson, or affinity groups to better coordinate mutual aid and actions, as well as connecting with legal observers, street medics, and bail funds in advance.
Moderates—whether independents, democrats, or republicans—will likely mobilize toward preserving law and order and seek to assert their political energy in the restoration of electoral processes. From democrats, we may see some non-violent direct action in collaboration with the left (such as in the Hold the Line Guide), while also condemning and undermining “radical” leftists—we can expect tension between these two groups over tactics and approach. From republicans we’ll likely see division between those colluding with courts and officials in “monitoring” elections (which will cause further delays in results and escalating instability) and those demanding alignment with the earliest results.
[Image description: a pink rectangle with the word Hotspots in purple lettering, with drop pins for the o’s]
Polling Places & Clerks Offices are obvious places where clashes may occur, as some try to vote, others try to intimidate or suppress voters, and others try to protect the voting process. Polling places will be targets on and around November 3rd, while clerks offices may be targets for longer periods as polling places are prepared and ballots are counted. Consider initiatives that protect voters as well as the neighborhoods that surround the voting place; actions intended to protect voters should recognize that violence will escalate if those present to suppress are met with hostility—principled non-violence may be key at these sites, but don’t underestimate the risks.
Election day and the day after will be tense (as above), and especially as tensions arise toward election night. In places like Michigan where stakes are high and votes will not be fully counted on the day of (we accept ballots until November 17th), we can expect reactive and planned actions (protests and mobilizations) in response to projections, claimed victories, or lack of clear information. Expect pre-planned actions to take place in central, symbolic locations like town squares, while skirmishes between neighbors and neighborhoods could take place all over.
The day of the announcement (of a winner or concession) will likely come days or weeks after election day and we can expect mass mobilizations escalating toward the announcement and mobilizations being the largest (in individual size) and broadest (in number of events) in response to the announcement itself (regardless of who wins) and the concession or lack of concession of power. If one is trying to avoid involvement, these are days to stay home. Reactive actions are those that “pop-off” in response to unpredictable events, pre-planning strategic actions that can be executed on-demand may help to reduce risk.
Courts & Hearing Dates are likely to occur between now and January 20, 2021 (if not longer) over election rules and procedures, seized ballots, discarded ballots, and contested results. These dates will gather mobilizations by all sides at and around courthouses, clerks offices, and government buildings where tensions between civilians and government are likely to be violent primarily by law enfocement seeking to establish “order” through tear gas, batons, firearms, arrests, and detentions. Establishing relationships with legal observers, bail and jail support, and street medics are highly advised when engaging at these locations.
Black & Brown Neighborhoods are most likely to be targeted with suppression, as they have been hotspots of conflict since 2014. Perceived progressive strong-holds and neighborhoods with mixed representation between Trump supporters and Biden supporters may also see increased tension in response to celebrations and protests. Between now and January 2021, establishing block clubs, tenants councils, tenants unions, and neighborhood phone trees may help in coordinating resources that help to subvert reliance on law enforcement for protection (which will increase vulnerability to criminalized people); establishing norms and agreements for engaging in conflict in the neighborhood may reduce the likelihood of interpersonal violence.
Symbols of White Supremacy are likely to be places of assembly for white supremacist groups, as we’ve seen them protect confederation and nationalist monuments in the past. They are also targets for antifa and the left. If these sites exist in your location, consider how to mobilize around and away from them, depending on your goals and vulnerabilities.
Symbols of Civil Rights are likely to be targeted by white supremacists and may be places to avoid and/or protect, depending on your goals and vulnerabilities. These symbols can also be online—we can expect a large presence of targeted harassment, doxxing, and other virtual tactics of suppression and violence aimed at people and groups who represent Black Lives Matter, defunding the police, and social justice more broadly. Online resources exist for protecting oneself from online harassment. Counter-messaging support and uplifting messages for liberation and racial justice will be a meaningful way to engage online.
Inauguration Day and/or the day of concession—regardless of who wins the electoral college, popular vote, or who concedes—will likely be a day of mass mobilization similar to J20. Whether power is conceded before the inauguration or in a process of forced removal, the day(s) that power is officially transferred in symbolic or material ways will be flashpoints for mobilization.
[Image description: a purple rectangle with text in pink lettering that reads “Sparks & Supressants”—behind the text are lighter purple outlines of a flame and a firehose]
We often wrongly see sparks or escalation as bad in conflict and suppressants or deescalation as good in conflict; instead we have to consider methods and goals. Law enforcement enacts violence in order to suppress conflict sparked by public dissent—public dissent often escalates conflict toward justice or liberation.
Online misinformation has been and will continue to be one of the greatest factors for sparking violence, suppression, and authoritarian power in coming months. Providing alternative or “correct information” is one response that is important, but can also feed the conflict. An alternative tactic would be to provide people with the tools to analyze election and political information for themselves (what is a credible source, what is the impact of this information, etc.).
Controversial assemblies will spark clashpoints between various constituencies that will inspire further assemblies across the country, increasing tensions and debates.
Mobilization of law enforcement will escalate violence in the moment of protest; their presence will also likely suppress (some but no means all) in-person engagement from criminalized and targeted communities who may choose to engage in influential online or remote action instead. Military action on behalf of or against the sitting president would almost certainly be an enormous spark point for outbreaks of protest and violence across the country. Creating opportunities for mass action online or in locations away from law enforcement will expand participation.
Morally egregious acts such as the use of military against civilians, mass shootings, and mass detentions, will spark reactive protests, tensions, and debates.
Overwhelming evidence may be a suppressant; for example, if Biden were to win the popular vote and the electoral college by a landslide that may undermine people’s willingness to go “all-in” for Trump and take risks on his behalf. On the flipside, ambiguity will likely turn out to be the biggest spark of all.
Bipartisan unity about the electoral results may suppress conflict—regardless of who wins the election, if both parties agree that the election results and process clearly favored one outcome then this may serve to temper mobilizations at the political center, leaving the far left and right with diminished capacity to respond.
Coronavirus will likely impact the way that people mobilize in-person and could prove to suppress larger mobilizations that we saw around Trump’s first election, though we have already seen that in-person protest has been significant since Spring and shouldn’t overestimate deterrance due to COVID concerns.
Opportunities to Learn + Act
Event—October 15th: Mutual Aid as Dual Power: Abolition and Decolonization through City-Wide & Regional Spokescouncils and Clusters, details here & registration here // and/or read Mutual Aid Disaster Relief’s document on Community Democracy and Dual Power
Read— This is my message to the western world – your civilisation is killing life on Earth by Nemonte Nenquimo
Watch (short video)—Shit’s Totally Fucked! What Can We Do? by Dean Spade
[Image description: a purple square with text in white lettering that reads: “The people make revolution; the oppressors, by their brutal actions, cause resistance by the people.” — Huey P. Newton]